The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) sees signs of a slowdown in the European economy based on advanced composite indicators published today and the first to take into account the effects of the war in Ukraine.
This reversal in the pace of growth is seen in major European economies, such as Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, while the trend remains stable in the United States, Japan and Canada.
March’s advanced composite indexes – statistics that show fluctuations in the economic cycle between six and nine months in advance – have fallen for most countries on the Old Continent, although they generally remain above the 100 level, which is the long-term average. The decline this month was noticeable in the United Kingdom (minus 28 to 100.58), France (minus 25 to 99.45) or Italy (minus 23 to 100.80) and slightly less pronounced in Spain (minus 16). hundredths for 101.11 points.) or in Germany (minus 13 percent for 100.63 points).
Across the eurozone, the monthly drop is 17 hundredths to 100.43 points.
Outside of Europe, the index rises four hundred points for the United States to 100.09 points, remains for Japan at 100.55 points and drops five hundred points for Canada to 100.09 points.
Among the OECD member countries in Latin America, the most striking feature is the sharp decline in Chile, with a drop of 48 percent from a point in March, which is an acceleration of the trend observed in previous months.
Chile’s index stands at 98.88 points, one of the lowest in the organization and well below the 100 level of its long-term average.
Outside the OECD, among the large emerging economies, Brazil stands out for the significant decline in the index in March (minus 51 parts per cent from a point to only 97.82 points), which again indicates a reversal in economic growth.
In a first report to assess the economic impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine submitted on March 17, the organization estimated that the world’s gross domestic product could fall by about two percentage points.
Then the study authors determined that the eurozone, due to its dependence on fossil fuels that it imports from Russia, the impact could be 1.4 points of GDP, while in the United States this would be less (0.9 points).