If you’re miso exhausted, and missing miso, with a mix of freshness (awesome!) and cold (oops!) in your belly with whatever might come your way, remember not to take it personally: We’re witnessing the greatest transformation in human history. We need information and tools to deal with this. Reflect on your daily life and imagine a pie chart for this age-old, but ever truer question: How much time and resources should be devoted to dealing with urgent matters? As for the strategy, what is important? Well… we are usually run over day in and day out without being able to stop to understand where we are and where we are going.
This is a practical goal with future and new economies. It is essential that everyone, at this moment, be a little futuristic: in moments of extreme change, the future cannot be seen through the lens of the past.
Why try and how can the scale of this shift be seen? I want to tell you more about Paul Baran first – you are probably familiar with his diagrams representing the types of networks, central, decentralized and distributed, that illustrate this column. These types of networks can refer to communications and flows of any kind: data, goods, services, people, and decision-making.
Look at the three pictures and think about your life contexts in relation to the three patterns, to understand how they work.. Let’s see if it works with leisure? Watch something at home: a central pattern, we are receptors for something that someone emits. Being on the beach or at a party: decentralized, we are in the same environment, but in groups: our conversation group, our tent. and distributed? Will it be the most intense and interactive experiences, with everyone: carnival block, arcade, and group digital games?
While preparing for a course for leaders on future and new economies, I met David de Ugarte, who suggested that history follow the same patterns of the grid: a period of ownership and an economy based on monopolies and slaves, with roads, information, and trade privileges, all passing through the same center: the court. This was the central pattern.
With the Renaissance, journalism, science, navigation, and colonialism, the world became decentralized to other types of groupings. Here comes the key: When the way goods, information, and people change, so does the entire system. This brings the need for new political and economic models that fit the new reality. This is what happened and we went from a centralized monarchy to a republic. The economy became industrialized. This was the decentralized pattern.
This is where the digital revolution comes in: the network now has a new standard. are distributed.
We are all connected to everyone, with unlimited communication possibilities. What’s more: the network is immaterial, operating outside of time and space, allowing for a dynamism that didn’t exist before: exponential.
Know in which areas of your life the exponential exists. In which the limits of the response are linear and restricted in time and place.
This is the challenge – and one of the main causes of the current crises: As digital is distributed and grows exponentially, we, the planet and time linear, are constrained by the capabilities of nature and our own. The ability to respond linearly to exponential questions. The account is not closed as it is not sustainable.
so what? If Ugarte’s hypothesis holds, then this change in the network pattern will inevitably lead to a change in the economic and political model for doing the job. Sexy pause, breathe. Know what’s going on with the economy. Do you see changes in the direction of their distribution? How wide is it? how long? Are there signs of the need to change the economic model with political models?
The April issue of Época NEGÓCIOS gave an excellent account of this: DAOs, Crypto, NFTs and the breadth of possibilities they bring that we need to be aware of. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), considers the world “at a crossroads on how much, how fast and at what rate” to advance digital money and mentions the potential of stablecoins – try to keep pace with the evolution of this class of digital currencies.
To check whether the hypothesis of network pattern change = change in the world is correct, I follow those who dedicate themselves to the macro and the systemic: historians such as Yuval Harari and Niall Ferguson; Researchers such as Otto Scharmer or economists are quite different from each other. People like Bernard Leiter, who formulated the Law of Sustainability of Systems, showed that stability would only be possible if we had two complementary economies: one that we already knew, central, and the other distributed. And like Ray Dalio, who has studied patterns over time that reveal impending change.
In February 2020, my future lens revealed that the world will change that year. We have reached the facility of the exponential curve, and at some point our linear response will fail. It frightened me—and still frightens me—the slightest noticing of it. In addition to my book launch event (2019), I had meetings with executives in my studio and the invitation was: “2020, the year everything changes.” Few saw a gray rhino heading our way. Do you wake up and go to sleep like someone who is prepared and aware of major changes? We tend to deny or not see these big changes.
Innovators: How a Group of Hackers, Geniuses, and Geeks Created the Digital Revolution, by Walter Isaacson, provides dozens of accounts of skepticism regarding change and its potential. Large organizations told Paul Baran (who contributed to Arpanet, The Origin of the Web) that his idea that data – in order to circulate it by quantity and speed – had to be broken down into packets was completely implausible. Stay with us to expand your ability to perceive and interpret the coming future.
*Lala Deheinzelin is a futurist, neo-economics expert, and innovator of the Crie Futuros movement and 4D Fluxonomy. Lala invites you to be part of the free Crie Futuros community, which will have weekly podcasts for directions and monthly meetings (first meeting on April 26th), in order to participate in the creation of a desirable and potential future.